Rookie aims for repeat in Giants' tilt with Astros

Baseball Betting Lines

07/03/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Sadowski will shoot for an encore performance tonight for the NL Wild Card-leading San Francisco Giants, who will open a 10-game homestand with the first of three consecutive meetings versus the Houston Astros at AT&T Park.

Sadowski made his major league debut Sunday at Milwaukee and threw six shutout innings in a 7-0 victory, scattering four hits and striking out two batters with three walks. The right-hander was 5-2 with a 4.11 earned run average in 13 starts for Triple-A Fresno before being recalled.

The Giants hope that Sadowski can pitch them back into the win column after losing the last two tests of a four-game series in St. Louis. In Thursday's 5-2 loss at Busch Stadium, veteran starter and 2002 AL Cy Young recipient Barry Zito yielded all five runs and five hits with seven K's and three walks over 4 1/3 frames to absorb the loss.

"Everything they hit fell in, similar to the first two games for us," said Giants manager Bruce Bochy. "We didn't play well defensively the last two days either. We made some mistakes we haven't been doing."

Aaron Rowand provided the offense with a two-run homer for the Giants, who went 5-5 on a 10-game trek and sit a half-game ahead of both the Brewers and Cardinals in the Wild Card standings. San Francisco will host Houston, Florida and San Diego on the residency and has won three straight as the host.

Houston recently won three of four matchups in San Diego and recorded a 7-2 victory in Thursday's series finale. Wandy Rodriguez started for the Astros and earned the win with seven innings of one-run ball, while allowing seven hits with five strikeouts and two walks.

Geoff Blum hit a three-run homer and drove in four runs for Houston, and Lance Berkman ended with two hits, three runs scored and an RBI in the win. Carlos Lee also contributed two hits and knocked in a run for the Astros, who have won six of eight games and are 3 1/2 games behind San Francisco in the Wild Card race.

"The key is to keep winning series'," said Astros manager Cecil Cooper. "That's the name of the game and we've been able to do that quite a bit lately and that's good."

Taking the ball for Cooper's club tonight will be Felipe Paulino, who is 2-4 with a 5.51 ERA in 12 games (9 starts) this season. Paulino won his most recent start Saturday versus Detroit, as he held the Tigers to a run on three hits over seven innings. He also struck out nine batters and issued no walks.

Paulino, a right-hander, recorded his first win since May 2 at Atlanta and will face San Francisco for the first time tonight. He is, however, just 1-3 in five games, three of which have been starts, on the visiting mound.

Houston and San Francisco are meeting for the first time since the Astros took seven of the eight meetings a year ago. Houston went 3-1 at AT&T Park in 2008.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.